![]() The expansion of India’s nuclear posture to take a conventionally and nuclear superior China into account will result in significantly new capabilities being deployed over the next decade, which could potentially also influence how India views the role of its nuclear weapons against Pakistan. Tension remained high in 2019, with troop injuries on both sides of the border (BBC 2020). This posture is likely to be reinforced after the 2017 Doklam standoff, during which Chinese and Indian troops were placed on high alert over a dispute near the Bhutanese border. All the new Agni missiles have ranges that indicate their primary target is China. While India’s primary deterrence relationship is with Pakistan, its nuclear modernization indicates that it is putting increased emphasis on its future strategic relationship with China. Wait for that surprise.… You have chosen a path of war without knowing the consequence for the peace and security of the region” (Abbasi 2019). Speaking to the media at the time, a senior Pakistani official noted, “I hope you know what the NCA means and what it constitutes. The skirmish escalated into the nuclear realm when it triggered a convening of Pakistan’s National Command Authority, the body that oversees Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. In retaliation, Pakistani aircraft shot down and captured an Indian pilot before returning him a week later. These two nuclear-armed countries engaged in open hostilities as recently as February 2019, when Indian fighters dropped bombs near the Pakistani town of Balakot in response to a suicide bombing conducted by a Pakistan-based militant group. Tensions between India and Pakistan constitute one of the most concerning nuclear hotspots on the planet. KristensenKorda_India Nuclear Notebook Table1_TandF Construction of the first two, to be located on-site at the center, would reportedly begin in 2021 and be ready for commercial power production by the early 2030s (Kumar 2018). The director of the research center has additionally stated that six more fast breeder reactors will come online within the next 15 years. Adding to the estimated 5,400 kilograms of reactor-grade plutonium included in India’s strategic stockpile (International Panel on Fissile Materials 2018), the unsafeguarded 500-megawatt Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor under construction at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research near Kalpakkam could potentially increase India’s plutonium production capacity significantly in the near future if it achieves criticality as planned in 2020, after a series of delays ( World Nuclear News 2019). In addition to the operational Dhruva plutonium production reactor at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre complex near Mumbai, India has plans to build at least one more plutonium production reactor. It will need more warheads to arm the new missiles that it is currently developing. Based on available information about its nuclear-capable delivery force structure and strategy, we estimate that India has produced 150 nuclear warheads (see Table 1). India is estimated to have produced approximately 600 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium (International Panel on Fissile Materials 2018), sufficient for 150–200 nuclear warheads however, not all the material has been converted into nuclear warheads. Beijing is now in range of Indian ballistic missiles. At least three more systems are in development, of which several are nearing completion and will soon be combat-ready. ![]() We estimate that India currently operates eight nuclear-capable systems: two aircraft, four land-based ballistic missiles, and two sea-based ballistic missiles. ![]() India continues to modernize its nuclear weapons arsenal and operationalize its nascent triad.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |